The number that predicts the miss
Every assignment carries a share of someone's time: fixing the API might take 80% of Charlie's week, reviewing designs 25%. Add up everything a person carries in the same week, across every project they touch, and you get their load. Judge it against their own capacity (100% for full-timers, less for anyone shared or part-time) and the future becomes legible: a week at 145% three weeks from now is a missed deadline scheduled in advance, visible today, fixable today.
Three rules that make the number honest
- Peak, not average. The crunch week is what breaks schedules; averaging it away is self-deception with math.
- Across all projects. Per-project charts each look fine while their shared person quietly stacks to 150%. Sum per person, not per chart.
- Against personal capacity. 60% load is relaxed for a full-timer and overload for someone whose real availability is 50%.
Reading a workload heatmap
The practical instrument is a heatmap: people as rows, weeks as columns, each cell that person's peak load for the week, green when comfortable, amber near capacity, red over it. Scanning one takes ten seconds: red cells are fires scheduled for later, and the empty or green columns next to them are where the fuel can be moved. Below, the real thing: